The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs MI London

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred returns to English cricket in August 2026, with Birmingham Phoenix hosting MI London on 12 August. The 0% YES probability on Polymarket reflects the market's current assessment that MI London will not emerge victorious from this twenty-over fixture. On-chain settlement treats any competition-determined winner—whether via standard play, Duckworth-Lewis-Stern adjustment, or a Super Over tiebreak—as a valid resolution, meaning the conditional token will resolve YES only if MI London's name appears on the official scorecard.

The Hundred has established itself as a relatively predictable format compared to longer-form cricket, with home advantage carrying measurable weight in group-stage matches. Birmingham Phoenix's record at Edgbaston and the franchise's squad composition relative to MI London's roster will anchor pre-match assessments. Historical Hundred data shows that teams batting first win approximately 48–52% of matches, whilst second-innings chases succeed at comparable rates, making venue-specific factors and team form the primary differentiators. Recent squad announcements and injury updates—particularly confirmations of overseas player availability—typically shift probabilities in the final weeks before competition.

Traders should monitor official team sheets released by the ECB and franchise social media channels as the match date approaches. Weather forecasts for Birmingham on 12 August and any last-minute changes to the Edgbaston fixture schedule could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 19 August, allowing three days post-match for official confirmation of results and any administrative rulings. USDC liquidity on Polygon will determine execution costs for position adjustments closer to the event.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.