The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this London Spirit v Manchester Super Giants contract at **41% YES**, with settlement tied to the official match result published by ESPN Cricinfo and denominated through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. In practice, that means the market is asking whether London Spirit will be the recorded winner of the 23 July 2026 Hundred match at Lord’s, with ordinary cricket rulings such as DLS, over-rate penalties, or a Super Over counting as a valid win if they determine the result.

The 41% level reads as a slight underdog position for London Spirit rather than a deep discount, which is useful when comparing it with recent comparable evidence. Earlier in the same venue and competition, Manchester Super Giants’ women beat London Spirit women by seven wickets at Lord’s, a result that reinforces the idea that this fixture has been live and competitive rather than one-sided.[1][7] That said, women’s and men’s Hundred sides are separate squads, so the result is only a loose form guide, not direct team-to-team evidence.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed playing XIs, any last-minute injury or availability news, and whether the match proceeds on schedule at Lord’s, since Hundred outcomes can turn quickly on team composition and conditions. The published schedule places the women’s match at 3.00pm and the men’s at 6.30pm, so attention to official match timing matters when a contract window runs to the end of play.[2] With only a limited number of balls in The Hundred, one batting collapse, a powerplay burst, or a weather-affected chase can move this market sharply once the game starts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.