The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred’s Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds match is already priced at **100% YES** on Polymarket, which means the contract is effectively treated as fully settled in favour of the outcome the market expects, with value now sitting in the conditional token rather than any real uncertainty. On Polymarket, that exposure is held in **USDC** on **Polygon**, so the practical question for a trader is not whether the game happened, but whether the market’s resolution logic matches the official result or any later competition ruling.

That near-certain pricing is easy to read against the sides’ recent head-to-heads. Sunrisers Leeds beat Manchester Super Giants by eight wickets at Headingley on 28 July 2026, chasing 182 with 12 balls remaining after Mitchell Marsh’s 63 off 26[1][6][8]. Manchester Super Giants had also beaten Sunrisers Leeds earlier in the same competition by four wickets, and the pair have split recent meetings in a way that shows both can win on the day rather than one side dominating the matchup[3][11]. For a prediction market user, that history matters mainly as context for why a live contract would normally move around matchups, venue and toss — but here the market is already priced as a done deal.

The key catalysts now are administrative rather than sporting: the final scorecard, any official abandoned-match notation, and whether the competition’s match report confirms a standard win, a Super Over, or a result via DLS/DRS, over-rate penalty or forfeiture, all of which the market description says count as ordinary wins. BBC Sport’s live coverage for the fixture said the line-ups would be revealed at the toss and listed Headingley as the venue, which is the sort of operational detail that usually drives pre-match repricing, but after settlement the only thing that should matter is the official competition record[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.