The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market sees London Spirit’s win as effectively unavailable on-chain today. That price is set on **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so it reflects trader consensus rather than the official result itself; settlement will follow the match outcome as published by ESPNcricinfo under the market rules.

London Spirit Women played Manchester Super Giants Women in The Hundred on 23 July 2026, with fixture listings showing the match at Lord’s and Cricket World carrying a live match page for the same pairing.[2][3] A recent highlights video records Manchester Super Giants winning by seven wickets after London Spirit were dismissed for 80, a result that is useful as a comparable case because it shows how decisively this matchup can swing when one side posts a low total.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final scorecard, any official score corrections, and whether the competition records a standard win, DLS result, or on-field tiebreak if needed; those all resolve as ordinary wins under the market terms. Because the settlement window runs to 30 July 2026, the key risk for anyone holding a position is not a delayed announcement but a late change to the published result or a correction to the official match record used for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.