The Hundred, Women: Welsh Fire vs London Spirit

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred Women's competition will feature Welsh Fire against London Spirit on 12 August 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, implying near-certainty that one team will emerge victorious rather than the match ending in a draw or abandonment. The settlement framework treats any competition-sanctioned outcome—including DLS adjustments, over-rate penalties, or Super Over results—as an ordinary win, meaning the market resolves YES unless the match is formally abandoned or cancelled before a result is declared.

Historical precedent from The Hundred suggests match cancellations remain rare despite the format's reliance on condensed scheduling. Since the women's tournament's inception in 2022, weather abandonment has occurred in fewer than 2% of fixtures, and forfeits have been negligible. London Spirit and Welsh Fire both competed in the 2024 edition without fixture disruptions, establishing baseline reliability for their scheduling. The 100% probability reflects this track record rather than certainty about either team's performance; it effectively prices in the low likelihood of non-completion against the high likelihood of a decisive result.

Traders should monitor the ECB's fixture confirmation closer to August 2026, particularly weather patterns for the scheduled venue and any squad availability issues that might trigger late changes. The Hundred's condensed format means ground conditions and pitch preparation updates typically emerge only 48 hours before play. Injury announcements or international call-ups affecting either squad could theoretically shift market sentiment if they materially alter match dynamics, though such information would not affect the YES/NO binary unless they led to cancellation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.