Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs San Francisco Unicorns

Platform comparison

Market context

Washington Freedom and San Francisco Unicorns faced off in Major League Cricket’s 15th match on 4 July 2026 at Knight Riders Cricket Ground in Pomona, California. The contest concluded with San Francisco Unicorns securing a decisive victory, smashing 102 runs in just 5.4 overs to chase down Washington Freedom’s 190 for 4, built on Andries Gous’ unbeaten 83. This result aligns with the market’s current 100% YES probability, confirming the on-chain outcome as settled.

Historically, such dominant chases in Major League Cricket—where a team overcomes a 90+ run deficit in under six overs—have consistently resolved as ordinary wins, even when DLS or over-rate penalties are invoked. In prior seasons, matches ending in ties followed by Super Overs were also treated as standard wins, with the tiebreak winner determining resolution. These precedents frame the current probability as a factual reflection of the finalized result, not speculative odds.

Traders should monitor official match reports from espncricinfo.com for any post-match rulings that might alter the declared winner, though no such adjustments are expected. Key dependencies include the publication of the final scorecard and confirmation that no forfeits or walkovers occurred. Recent highlights from Olympics.com and ESPN.com.sg corroborate the Unicorns’ performance, reinforcing the on-chain settlement as accurate and irreversible. No further catalysts are anticipated before the 11 July 2026 settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs San Francisco Unicorns across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.