Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistan

Platform comparison

Market context

Ireland will host Afghanistan for a one-day international cricket match on 15 August 2026, with the conditional token YES currently trading at 33 cents on Polygon. This reflects the market's assessment that Afghanistan will win the encounter, implying roughly two-to-one odds favouring an Ireland victory. The settlement mechanics treat any on-field result—including DLS adjustments, Super Over outcomes, or forfeit decisions—as ordinary wins, meaning the market resolves on the declared winner regardless of how the match concludes.

Afghanistan's recent ODI record against Ireland provides the baseline for interpreting current pricing. The teams last met in 2019 when Afghanistan won by six wickets in a World Cup fixture, and Afghanistan has generally strengthened its middle-order batting and death bowling since then. However, Ireland has improved its home record considerably over the past three years, winning seven of its last ten ODIs at home. The 33% probability for Afghanistan reflects genuine competitive balance rather than heavy favouritism, consistent with how Polymarket prices bilateral cricket matches between established sides.

Key catalysts for traders include team announcements regarding squad composition and injury status, expected closer to the match date. Weather forecasts for the Irish venue will matter substantially—rain could favour Afghanistan's bowling attack if conditions remain overcast. Recent form in the weeks preceding August will shift perceptions, particularly if either side experiences unexpected defeats in intervening fixtures. The settlement window closes 22 August, allowing five days post-match for any administrative rulings or clarifications on the declared result.

Methodology

This page reviews Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistan across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.