Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Match Winner | 72% |
| Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5) | 57% |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs HOTU (+6.5) | 26% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5) | 5% |
| Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-6.5) vs Astralis (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-9.5) vs Astralis (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: hotu vs astralis (bo3) - starladder starseries european qualifier group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between HOTU and Astralis in the StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B, initially scheduled for July 22 at 6:00AM …
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - StarLadder … on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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