Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nemiga (-6.5) vs B8 (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nemiga (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 82% |
| Map 3 Winner | 69% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NEMI (-2.5) vs B8 (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-6.5) vs Nemiga (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-9.5) vs Nemiga (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 43% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 25% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 21% |
| Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: B8 (-2.5) vs Nemiga (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-6.5) vs Nemiga (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nemiga (-9.5) vs B8 (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: nemiga vs b8 (bo5) - pgl masters bucharest: european qualifier playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Nemiga and B8 in the PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 20…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs B8 (BO5) - PGL Masters Buc… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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