Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs paiN Academy (+6.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN Academy (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs paiN Academy (+6.5) | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN Academy (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: paiN Academy (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs paiN Academy (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs paiN Academy (+9.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs paiN Academy (+3.5) | 25% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs paiN Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket's conditional token pricing reflects near-zero conviction in paiN Academy's victory, with the contract trading at 0% YES across USDC settlement on Polygon. This represents an extreme market position for a best-of-three Counter-Strike match between two Brazilian organisations competing in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, scheduled for 10 August at 21:00 UTC. The settlement window closes 11 August at 02:10 UTC, allowing roughly five hours post-match for resolution confirmation.
paiN Academy operates as the developmental roster for paiN Gaming, competing primarily in regional South American circuits, whilst Keyd remains an established fixture in Brazilian competitive Counter-Strike with deeper tournament experience and more consistent LAN placements. Historical matchups between academy-tier and established rosters in this region typically favour the latter, though upsets occur frequently enough in best-of-three formats to warrant non-zero probability. The 0% pricing suggests either definitive roster information favouring Keyd or market illiquidity rather than genuine certainty.
Traders should monitor BetBoom's official match schedule confirmation, as delays beyond seven days trigger 50-50 resolution per market rules. Roster changes or last-minute substitutions—common in Brazilian Counter-Strike—could alter competitive balance materially. The match's position as Round 5 in group stage play means both teams' prior results and remaining fixture difficulty may influence tactical preparation. USDC liquidity depth on this contract remains limited, creating potential slippage for meaningful position sizing.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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