Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 24% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 13% |
| Lyngby BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Lyngby BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC København’s meeting with Lyngby BK is being priced on Polymarket as a **24% yes** on the “more markets” contract, with settlement tied to the Superliga fixture window ending at 14:00 UTC. Because this is a USDC market on Polygon using conditional tokens, the price reflects what traders think is likely to be resolved by the match and any linked market definitions, not a simple match-winner view.
For context, the clearest comparable signal is FC København’s recent edge in the head-to-head: a full-match highlights reel from the sides’ September 2025 meeting shows FC København winning 2-1 and moving top of the Superliga, which is the sort of result that tends to anchor expectations around Copenhagen’s stronger recent profile.[2] The listed FotMob fixture page also places the teams in the same league context and confirms the pairing as a Superliga match-up, which matters because “more markets” outcomes often depend on the volume of live or derivative trading interest around a high-visibility domestic game.[1]
The main catalysts for a Polymarket user are late team news, confirmed line-ups, and whether the contract’s definition captures only official match data or also related market outcomes that can be affected by substitutions, cards, or in-play events. Traders also watch for any scheduling or feed dependencies, since settlement on conditional tokens depends on clean oracle resolution rather than the crowd’s interpretation of the game state. In practical terms, the last update before kick-off usually matters most when a low-percentage contract is sitting near the tails of the order book.
Methodology
We track FC København vs. Lyngby BK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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