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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Klim Sani4 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Klim Sani4 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game 1 Winner 100% Ends in Daytime 100% Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $275K Liquidity: $109K Closes: 13 Sept 2026
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Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Klim Sani4 (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Ends in Daytime100%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan90%
Match Winner82%
Game 2 Winner71%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Game Handicap: Dawn Bulls (-1.5) vs Klim Sani4 (+1.5)50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games30%
First Blood in Game 1?10%
Any Player Ultra Kill10%
Any Player Rampage10%
Game Handicap: KS (-1.5) vs Dawn Bulls (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to dota 2: dawn bulls vs klim sani4 (bo3) - blast slam europe closed qualifier playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Semifinal 2 match between Dawn Bulls and Klim Sani4 in the BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

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