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Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) 61% Both Teams Beat Roshan 57% Ends in Daytime 56% Ends in Daytime 56% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $200K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
61% 39% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
61% 39% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)61%
Both Teams Beat Roshan57%
Ends in Daytime56%
Ends in Daytime56%
Ends in Daytime56%
Any Player Ultra Kill56%
Any Player Rampage52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?49%
First Blood in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?36%
O/U 2.5 Games35%
Both Teams Beat Roshan33%
Both Teams Beat Roshan33%
Any Player Ultra Kill29%
Any Player Ultra Kill29%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Game 2 Winner22%
Game 1 Winner21%
Match Winner14%
Any Player Rampage14%
Any Player Rampage14%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 61% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Team Resilience and Team Yandex in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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