Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Libertad Loja O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Libertad Loja O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Libertad Loja 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Libertad Loja 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Libertad Loja (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (-1.5) | 0% |
| Libertad Loja (-2.5) | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Libertad Loja O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Libertad Loja 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Libertad Loja 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Libertad and Universidad Católica met in LigaPro Primera A on 10 August at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja, and Polymarket prices this conditional-tokens contract at **0% YES** today, meaning the market is assigning no chance to the “More Markets” outcome as currently defined on-chain in USDC on Polygon. The settlement window runs to 2026-08-10T21:30:00Z, so the price is reflecting not the abstract fixture but the specific clause tied to this market.
For context, this pairing has been comparatively tight over recent meetings: head-to-head data from Footystats shows 9 matches with Libertad and Católica each winning 2, and 5 draws, with 10 goals apiece across those games.[18] Other match databases also point to low-margin outcomes, including a 1-1 draw in November 2025 and a 2-0 Libertad win in August 2026, which is the kind of mixed record that usually keeps “more markets” contracts sensitive to the exact settlement wording rather than to simple win/loss form.[13][16]
A trader watching this market would focus on whether the underlying match and any linked market condition have already been decided by the league feed that Polymarket relies on, because on-chain settlement only follows the specified oracle outcome. Pre-match listings placed the game at 21:30 UTC, and live match pages later recorded the result as a 2-0 Libertad win, so the key catalyst is whether the contract’s auxiliary market condition was ever triggered in the first place.[1][15][16]
Methodology
This page reviews Libertad Loja vs. CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Libertad Loja vs. CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuado… on PolyGram
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