Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 100% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 0 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 3 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 0 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 3 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 2 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 1 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 3 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 2 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 3 Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this **exact-score** contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently saying no listed scoreline is being given any meaningful chance on-chain. On Polymarket, that probability sits inside a USDC-denominated market on Polygon, where traders are buying and selling conditional tokens against the final regulation-time score rather than the broader match result.
That reading is easier to understand against the recent head-to-head. Feyenoord have dominated the fixture over the long run, with sources showing around 15 wins to Sparta’s 2 and 4 draws in recent meetings, although Sparta did win the most recent Eredivisie clash 4-3 in January 2026 and the sides drew 1-1 in August 2024.[4][6][7] Exact-score markets tend to stay thin even when one team is favoured, because the contract resolves only on a single final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; common outcomes such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 1-1 can still fail if the game lands elsewhere.
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether either club has congestion or travel factors that change expected goal volume. Pre-match data around this fixture shows Feyenoord coming in off a 2-1 friendly win over Atalanta on 2 August, while Sparta’s recent competitive form included a 3-2 home loss to Excelsior, which matters because exact-score pricing is highly sensitive to whether this turns into a tight derby or an open game.[13][19] The contract stays open until the scheduled settlement window closes, so the decisive trigger is the match finishing with one of the listed scores at full time or stoppage time.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Sparta Rotterdam vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam - Exact Score on PolyGram
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