Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Round of 32 clash between Côte d’Ivoire and Norway kicks off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on 30 June 2026, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 7% YES. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens lock the payout based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and shoot-outs. The 7% implied probability reflects the rarity of any single exact score in a competitive knockout match, particularly between two teams with contrasting recent form.

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup knockout stages rarely exceed 10% unless one side is heavily favoured or has a dominant defensive record. Côte d’Ivoire qualified for the 2026 World Cup without conceding a goal in their CAF qualifiers, boasting 8 wins and 2 draws across 10 matches, while Norway’s best World Cup result remains the Round of 16 in 1998, and they lost 4–1 to France in their most recent group-stage exit. Past data shows Côte d’Ivoire averages 1.6 points per match with 0.6 opponent points, whereas Norway’s odds suggest they are slightly favoured to qualify, with bookmakers pricing them at 2.05 for a win and 1.6 for qualification overall.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late tactical shifts, as both teams enter the match with fresh legs after their group-stage exits. Norway’s recent loss to Germany (2–1) and Côte d’Ivoire’s narrow defeat to Germany (2–1) indicate both sides are vulnerable to high-pressure attacks, which could influence goal distribution. ABC News has confirmed the match schedule and venue details, noting no postponement is expected, so the settlement window remains fixed for 30 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC. Any injury news or lineup changes released before kickoff will be the primary catalyst for price movement in the exact score market.

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Methodology

We track Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.