Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 66% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 63% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 53% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 51% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 35% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 17% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 clash between the United States and Belgium is set for 8:00 PM ET on July 6, with both sides possessing defensive frailties that suggest a high-scoring affair. On Polymarket, this player prop contract currently trades at a 32% YES probability, reflecting a cautious market view despite the underlying tactical evidence pointing towards goals. The on-chain mechanics utilise USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens execute automatically based on the official match outcome, ensuring transparent settlement without intermediary delay.
Historically, knockout matches featuring teams with similar expected goal (xG) surrender rates have consistently produced over 2.5 total goals, framing the current 32% probability as potentially undervalued. Both the US and Belgian defensive units have surrendered high xG figures throughout the tournament, a trend mirrored in previous World Cup rounds where attacking talent like Romelu Lukaku and Christian Pulisic exploited tracking failures. Comparable cases from the 2022 tournament show that when both teams prioritise attack over defensive rigidity, the market often underestimates the goal volume until kickoff.
Traders should monitor the confirmed starting lineups, specifically the availability of Folarin Balogun for the US, which significantly alters the attacking dynamic. Recent analysis from StadiumRant highlights Balogun’s elite status as an offensive weapon, noting his availability provides the USMNT with a critical advantage against Belgian centre-backs [1]. Additionally, watch for late tactical announcements regarding Belgium’s defensive setup, as their poor defensive record suggests vulnerability to US tracking errors at the back post. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-07, so all dependencies must resolve before that timestamp for the conditional tokens to trigger.
Methodology
This page reviews United States vs. Belgium - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade United States vs. Belgium - Player Props on PolyGram
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