Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 90% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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