Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Cremonese (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| UC Sampdoria (-1.5) | 0% |
| US Cremonese (-2.5) | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Cremonese will face UC Sampdoria in the Coppa Italia on 17 August at 2:45 PM ET, with Polymarket currently pricing the "More Markets" contract at 100% YES. This settlement hinges on whether additional betting markets materialise for the fixture beyond those already live. The contract sits on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with conditional token mechanics determining payout based on market availability at the settlement window close on 17 August at 18:45 UTC.
Historical precedent suggests Coppa Italia fixtures between lower-tier Serie A sides attract modest liquidity expansion. When Brescia faced Reggina in the 2023–24 Coppa Italia, secondary markets emerged within hours of kickoff, though not universally across all platforms. The 100% probability reflects trader confidence that at least one additional market variant—whether match corners, cards, or player performance metrics—will launch before the deadline. However, this assumes normal operational conditions; platform outages or administrative delays have occasionally prevented market creation despite demand.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements regarding market deployment schedules, as the platform typically batches Coppa Italia markets in tranches. The fixture's relatively low profile compared to Serie A derbies means market expansion depends partly on curator discretion and user demand signals. Any technical issues affecting the platform's market-creation infrastructure between now and settlement could shift probabilities materially. Additionally, if either club faces unexpected squad issues or fixture postponement, market creation timelines may shift accordingly.
Methodology
This page reviews US Cremonese vs. UC Sampdoria - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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