Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing a Pisa SC victory or draw against Empoli FC in the Coppa Italia first round at 61% YES, implying roughly 39% odds of an Empoli win. The match takes place Monday, 17 August 2026. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on that date, with conditional tokens (YES/NO) redeemable in USDC on Polygon once the final whistle confirms the result. Current pricing reflects modest confidence in the home side or a stalemate outcome.

Historically, Pisa and Empoli have occupied similar tiers within Italian football's second and third divisions, with neither club establishing consistent dominance in head-to-head records. Coppa Italia early rounds typically favour teams with recent league momentum and squad depth; both clubs' pre-season form and injury status will shape the underlying match dynamics. The 61% probability sits between a coin flip and strong favouritism, suggesting the market perceives genuine competitive balance whilst giving slight edge to Pisa's home advantage or recent trajectory.

Key catalysts for traders include official team sheets released 24 hours before kick-off, any late injury announcements to key players, and confirmation of starting lineups on match day. Fixture congestion in late August—particularly if either side has competing domestic or European commitments—may influence squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions in Pisa on 17 August could affect passing accuracy and defensive solidity. Monitor official Serie B or Coppa Italia communications for any fixture postponements or venue changes, though such disruptions remain uncommon at this stage of the competition.

Methodology

We track Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.