Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth. This market refers to the tennis match between Anastasija Cvetkovic and Mara Guth in the ITF W35 Verbier Women, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ana…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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