Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to m15 tsaghkadzor: ignacio monzon vs daniel khazime. This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Monzon and Daniel Khazime in the M15 Tsaghkadzor, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade M15 Tsaghkadzor: Ignacio Monzon vs Daniel Khazime on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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