Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Vissel Kōbe will host FC Tōkyō in the J. League on 15 August 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 AM ET. The conditional token structure on Polygon currently prices this "More Markets" contract at zero, reflecting either minimal trader interest in secondary market depth for this fixture or uncertainty about what additional betting options Polymarket will list once the primary match outcomes settle. The USDC liquidity pools suggest the core match markets (win/draw/loss, total goals) command the attention, leaving derivative contracts unpriced until closer to the event window.
Historically, J. League fixtures between these clubs have drawn modest secondary-market activity on prediction platforms, particularly for non-standard outcome categories. The 0% implied probability here mirrors patterns seen in lower-tier European league "more markets" contracts, where conditional tokens remain dormant until major sportsbooks or Polymarket itself signals additional betting categories—such as first-goal scorer, specific player performance thresholds, or corner-count ranges. These secondary markets typically activate only when primary settlement approaches, as traders hedge or seek granular exposure.
Catalysts for this contract's movement centre on Polymarket's own product roadmap and J. League fixture announcements. Team news—injuries to key players at either club, managerial changes, or domestic cup commitments affecting squad rotation—will influence whether traders perceive value in conditional outcomes. The settlement window closes 15 August at 10:00 AM ET, leaving a two-hour window post-match for resolution, which constrains late-market repricing.
Methodology
This page reviews Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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