Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| FC Seoul O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Seoul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Seoul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score | 23% |
| FC Seoul O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| FC Seoul (-1.5) | 9% |
| Gangwon FC (-1.5) | 6% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Gangwon FC (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| FC Seoul O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| FC Seoul (-2.5) | 2% |
| Gangwon FC O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Seoul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Seoul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Gangwon FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Seoul and Gangwon FC meet at Seoul World Cup Stadium this Sunday for a K-League 1 fixture, with kick-off at 05:30 local time (06:30 ET). On Polymarket, the “More Markets” contract for this game trades at an 18% YES probability, priced in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens that settle automatically once the match result is verified on-chain.
Historically, extra markets in K-League fixtures at Seoul World Cup Stadium have clustered around 15–22% when the home side holds a strong recent record. When these teams met at this venue previously, FC Seoul won 4–2, and across their last 10 encounters, Seoul has secured six wins against just one defeat [1]. This home dominance and the high-scoring precedent suggest the current 18% price reflects a conservative but plausible assessment of additional market activity, such as over/under goals or player-specific bets, rather than an outlier.
Traders should monitor the final lineups announced before kick-off, as FC Seoul’s three-match winning streak could influence betting volume on secondary markets [1]. Any late injury news to key attackers or defensive changes from Gangwon FC may shift liquidity in real-time, given the settlement window closes immediately after the match ends at 10:30 UTC [2]. With the game already underway in South Korea, on-chain order books will react swiftly to in-play developments, making pre-match lineup confirmation the primary catalyst for price movement.
Methodology
This page reviews FC Seoul vs. Gangwon FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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