Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Real Salt Lake O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Real Salt Lake 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-2.5) | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Real Salt Lake 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Real Salt Lake are hosting Tigres UANL at America First Field in Sandy, with the Leagues Cup tie scheduled for 10:00 pm ET and the settlement window closing just after kick-off on Polymarket. On the exchange, this “more markets” contract is effectively priced by the crowd at **0% YES**, so anyone buying uses USDC on Polygon to hold conditional tokens that only pay if a further, listed market is created and resolved as specified.
That near-zero price fits the pattern for niche match-side markets on football fixtures, where the base event is already known but the “more markets” layer depends on the platform offering additional outcome contracts rather than the result itself. Tigres have historically had the edge in the head-to-head, including a 2-0 CONCACAF win in 2015 and a 1-0 Leagues Cup win in 2019, while LeaguesCup.com also notes Tigres lead the all-time series 2-1-1. Recent preview material frames this as a tight pairing, with Tigres in transition after a coaching change and Real Salt Lake carrying mixed recent form but playing at home.[4][9]
Traders should watch for the sort of dependencies that actually move a “more markets” resolution: whether the league or event operator posts extra prop markets before the deadline, whether line-ups or late schedule changes alter the match centre, and whether coverage updates arrive in time to confirm the market’s existence. Real Salt Lake’s club preview says they remain at home for further Leagues Cup fixtures on 8 and 11 August, so the surrounding schedule is already set, but this contract still turns on administrative listing rather than on-field action.[10][17]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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