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LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Match Winner 79% Game 1 Winner 68% Game 3 Winner 66% O/U 3.5 Games 65% Volume: $98K Liquidity: $486K Closes: 26 Sept 2026
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LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 79% 21% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 79% 21% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner79%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 3 Winner66%
O/U 3.5 Games65%
Game 2 Winner64%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)59%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?54%
Game 4 Winner53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
First Blood in Game 1?47%
First Blood in Game 2?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?38%
Game Handicap: FLY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)29%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%

Market context

LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 79%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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