Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 78% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% |
| Game 3 Winner | 67% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 63% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 61% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 37% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 32% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 78% chance of lol: g2 esports vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitatio… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →