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LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 89% Game 1 Winner 82% Game 2 Winner 82% Game 3 Winner 81% Volume: $261K Liquidity: $489K Closes: 11 Jul 2026
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LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner89%
Game 1 Winner82%
Game 2 Winner82%
Game 3 Winner81%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)80%
First Blood in Game 1?72%
Game 4 Winner65%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?55%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)53%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
O/U 3.5 Games46%
Odd/Even Total Kills45%
Odd/Even Total Kills44%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games17%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 89% probability to lol: hanwha life esports vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Hanwha Life Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will re…

Methodology

We track LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
and

Trade LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season … on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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