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LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 86% Game 1 Winner 72% Game 2 Winner 71% Game 3 Winner 71% Volume: $204K Liquidity: $2.5M Closes: 29 Aug 2026
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LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 86% 14% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 86% 14% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner86%
Game 1 Winner72%
Game 2 Winner71%
Game 3 Winner71%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon65%
Game 4 Winner61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?61%
O/U 3.5 Games60%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?60%
First Blood in Game 1?59%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?57%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Any Player Quadra Kill54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Any Player Quadra Kill54%
First Blood in Game 3?54%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors52%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?43%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon39%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon39%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?38%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)37%
First Blood in Game 2?35%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?30%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill24%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?24%
O/U 4.5 Games23%

Market context

The LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 86% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between T1 and BNK FEARX in the LCK Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" …

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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