Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlante FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlante FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-2.5) | 0% |
| Atlante FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atlante FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Cruz Azul v Atlante is live on Polymarket as a **0% YES** contract for the match’s “More Markets” slate, priced off USDC on Polygon and settled through conditional tokens rather than the football result itself. That means traders are effectively asking whether any eligible ancillary market tied to the fixture resolves affirmative before the window closes at 03:00 UTC, not simply whether Cruz Azul win on the night.[1][4]
For context, Cruz Azul go into the fixture with a stronger competitive profile and the market has already seen a recent head-to-head surprise: Atlante beat Cruz Azul 1-0 in a June 2025 friendly, while current preview coverage frames Cruz Azul as the more favoured side for the Liga MX meeting.[2][6] In parallel, comparable betting markets for the same game have been heavily tilted towards Cruz Azul rather than an upset, which helps explain why a niche “more markets” contract can sit at the floor even when the underlying match looks contestable.[7][10]
The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, late injury updates, and whether the match starts as scheduled at 03:00 UTC in Mexico City, because any change to timing or eligible market scope can matter more here than raw team strength.[1][4][10] Recent listings also show at least one absentee note for Cruz Azul, Amaury Morales, which is the kind of pre-kickoff detail traders watch for on a contract that depends on event-specific market creation and settlement mechanics rather than open-ended football narrative.[10]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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