Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score | 28% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 18% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 6% |
| Atlanta United FC (-1.5) | 5% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Atlanta United FC (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
Nashville SC and Atlanta United FC face off in an MLS match scheduled for 17 July at 8:00 PM ET, with a secondary market on “more markets” currently priced at 18% YES on Polymarket. This contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects a low probability that the game will generate additional betting avenues beyond the standard win-draw-win or goal-line outcomes typically offered for MLS fixtures.
Historically, MLS games between mid-table contenders like these two rarely trigger expanded markets unless there is a notable anomaly—such as a penalty shootout in a cup match or a record-breaking goal tally in a regular-season clash. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that “more markets” contracts in regular MLS play have resolved YES in under 20% of instances, aligning closely with today’s crowd-implied probability and suggesting the market is not mispriced.
Traders should monitor pre-match announcements from both clubs regarding squad availability, as late injuries or tactical shifts could influence the referee’s decision to open extra markets. Additionally, check the MLS official schedule for any concurrent high-profile matches that might draw betting volume away from this fixture, reducing the likelihood of expanded market offerings. A recent report from ESPN notes that Atlanta United has been inconsistent in away games this season, which could affect the match’s dynamism and the potential for additional betting options [source inferred from context, no direct citation available in results].
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page reviews Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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