NBA Summer League: Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics

Platform comparison

Market context

The Toronto Raptors lost 80–83 to the Boston Celtics in the NBA Summer League game played on Friday, 10 July 2026 in Las Vegas, confirming the outcome that the market now prices at 0% YES for a Raptors win[6][7]. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens lock the settlement once the final score—including any overtime—is verified against official records[1]. The 0% price reflects the game’s completion rather than uncertainty, as the market resolves to the actual winner once the result is confirmed on-chain.

Historically, Summer League games between established franchises like the Celtics and Raptors show the Celtics’ depth often outweighs developmental volatility, with Boston winning 115–101 in a regular-season matchup earlier this year[4]. In past Summer League contests, teams with stronger rosters and coaching structures tend to dominate, making a 0% probability for the underdog consistent with both recent results and seasonal patterns[6].

Traders should monitor official NBA Summer League recaps and ESPN’s live score archives to confirm the final result before settlement, as any postponement would keep the market open until completion[1][2]. With the game already played and the Celtics victorious, the only catalyst now is the on-chain confirmation of the score, which will trigger automatic resolution to “Boston Celtics” under the market’s terms[5][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.