Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Bills vs. Texans — Live Probability Forecast | Polymarket — 93% likely

Name: Bills vs. Texans
Start: 2026-08-04T12:00:33.000Z
End: 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	93%	7%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Open the market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	93%	7%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Open the market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Open the market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Open the market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 26.5	93%
O/U 24.5	90%
O/U 28.5	89%
O/U 30.5	86%
O/U 32.5	82%
O/U 34.5	79%
O/U 36.5	76%
2H O/U 15.5	76%
2H O/U 18.5	71%
Bills O/U 16.5	71%
Texans O/U 16.5	70%
Texans 2H O/U 8.5	69%
Bills 2H O/U 8.5	69%
O/U 38.5	68%
Texans O/U 19.5	65%
Texans 1H O/U 8.5	64%
Bills 1H O/U 8.5	64%
Bills O/U 19.5	64%
O/U 40.5	63%
2H O/U 21.5	63%
Texans 2H O/U 10.5	61%
Bills 2H O/U 10.5	61%
O/U 41.5	59%
O/U 42.5	57%
1Q O/U 1.5	56%
O/U 43.5	55%
Bills O/U 22.5	54%
O/U 44.5	52%
Spread -0.5	52%
Bills vs. Texans	51%
2H Moneyline	51%
2H O/U 24.5	51%
1Q O/U 4.5	51%
1Q Moneyline	51%
3Q O/U 8.5	51%
3Q O/U 14.5	51%
4Q O/U 6.5	51%
4Q O/U 15.5	51%
4Q O/U 18.5	51%
1H Moneyline	51%
2H Spread -4.5	51%
1H O/U 21.5	51%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q O/U 7.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 13.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 19.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q O/U 2.5	50%
3Q O/U 5.5	50%
3Q O/U 11.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q O/U 9.5	50%
4Q O/U 12.5	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Texans 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Bills 2H O/U 12.5	50%
1Q Spread -4.5	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
3Q Spread -4.5	50%
4Q Spread -4.5	50%
Texans O/U 22.5	50%
1Q Spread -2.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q Spread -4.5	50%
Exact Margin: Bills by 25+	50%
Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24	50%
Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18	50%
Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12	50%
Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6	50%
Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13	50%
Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20	50%
Exact Margin: Texans by 21+	50%
Safety?	50%
Team to Record Longest FG	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q	50%
Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Bills vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -1.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -4.5	50%
Spread -1.5	49%
1H O/U 22.5	49%
1Q O/U 7.5	49%
2H Spread -0.5	49%
Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6	49%
Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q	49%
Spread -2.5	47%
Bills 1H O/U 10.5	46%
1H Spread -0.5	46%
O/U 45.5	46%
Spread -1.5	46%
O/U 46.5	45%
2H Spread -1.5	45%
Exact Margin: Tie	45%
Texans 1H O/U 10.5	44%
1H Spread -1.5	43%
1Q Spread -2.5	42%
Texans 1H O/U 12.5	42%
Bills 1H O/U 12.5	42%
Bills O/U 25.5	42%
Texans O/U 25.5	42%
O/U 47.5	41%
1Q O/U 10.5	41%
2H Spread -2.5	41%
O/U 48.5	40%
1Q Spread -0.5	40%
Spread -3.5	39%
2H O/U 27.5	39%
1Q Spread -0.5	39%
1Q Spread -1.5	39%
2H Spread -3.5	38%
2H Spread -4.5	35%
Spread -4.5	33%
O/U 50.5	33%
Texans O/U 28.5	33%
Bills O/U 28.5	32%
O/U 52.5	28%
O/U 54.5	22%
O/U 56.5	20%
O/U 58.5	17%
O/U 60.5	14%
O/U 64.5	11%
O/U 62.5	9%

Market context

Market consensus: 93% chance of bills vs. texans. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans". If the ga…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 26.5 at 93% for "Bills vs. Texans".

O/U 26.5 93% Other 7%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $90K.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Chris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editorand

Maya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

Trade Bills vs. Texans on PolyGram

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Bills vs. Texans

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Bills vs. Texans on PolyGram

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