Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rosenborg BK (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lillestrøm SK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK (-2.5) | 0% |
| Rosenborg BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Rosenborg BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Rosenborg BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** for the Lillestrøm SK v Rosenborg BK match-related “more markets” slate, which means the market is effectively saying no listed condition has been locked in before settlement on the 12:30 UTC window. On Polymarket, the position is a conditional token funded in **USDC** on **Polygon**, so the practical read is not the match in the abstract but whether the specific sub-market resolves true under the event’s final data feed.
Historical framing does not support treating that 0% as a normal pre-match football price. Lillestrøm and Rosenborg have a long head-to-head record with Rosenborg ahead overall: FootyStats lists 16 Rosenborg wins, 5 Lillestrøm wins and 8 draws across 29 meetings, while other datasets show similar Rosenborg advantage and multiple recent low-scoring results, including Rosenborg’s 2-0 win in May 2026 and Lillestrøm’s 1-1 draw with Rosenborg in 2024.[3][13][16] That sort of mixed but Rosenborg-favoured history matters because “more markets” contracts often hinge on granular match facts rather than the headline result, so a zero price usually signals the market has not yet been activated by the relevant underlying condition.
The trader catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, late injury or suspension news, and any change to the match schedule or data source used for settlement. Live match pages from SofaScore, Flashscore, FotMob and ESPN show the fixture is scheduled and being tracked in real time, so the key dependency is whether the event feed and the contract’s specific criteria align once kick-off data arrives.[1][2][10][11] For a Polymarket user, the operational watch-list is the match designation in the official feed, any pre-match postponement, and whether the sub-market’s outcome is decided by full-time stats, disciplinary events, or another conditional token trigger before the settlement window closes.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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