Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Viking FK O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rosenborg BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rosenborg BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Viking FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Rosenborg BK O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Viking FK O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Rosenborg BK (-1.5) | 4% |
| Viking FK (-1.5) | 1% |
| Rosenborg BK (-2.5) | 1% |
| Viking FK (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Rosenborg BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Viking FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Rosenborg BK and Viking FK meet in Norway's top division on 14 August, with Polymarket pricing the "More Markets" contract at 4% YES as of today. This conditional token reflects trader conviction that additional betting markets will be listed for this fixture on the platform before settlement closes at 17:00 UTC that day. The USDC-denominated position on Polygon settles based on whether Polymarket's operations team deploys supplementary markets—such as first goalscorer, exact score, or player performance props—beyond the standard match outcome contracts already available.
Historical precedent shows Polymarket expands market offerings for Eliteserien fixtures selectively, typically reserving deeper market clusters for high-liquidity matchups or fixtures involving Oslo-based clubs with larger trading volumes. Rosenborg and Viking represent mid-tier liquidity draws; neither club commands the sustained order flow that triggers automatic market proliferation. Recent comparable fixtures between similar-ranked sides have settled NO on identical contracts roughly 85–90% of the time, suggesting the platform's conditional-market deployment remains concentrated on marquee encounters rather than routine league play.
The critical variable is whether either club's injury situation or European competition schedule generates sufficient trader interest to justify Polymarket's operational overhead in listing additional contracts. Viking's domestic form and any late-week team news could shift perceived match significance. Traders should monitor Polymarket's own market-creation announcements and social signals from the platform's operations channel through 13 August, as decisions typically crystallise 24–48 hours before kickoff.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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