Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara | 100% |
| Académico de Viseu FC | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
Académico de Viseu and CD Santa Clara meet in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Saturday, 15 August 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at zero, reflecting either minimal trading volume or a technical settlement condition that traders view as impossible to resolve affirmatively. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, which aligns with typical European fixture schedules but leaves little margin for delayed kick-offs or postponements to be reflected in final odds.
Académico de Viseu has historically occupied the lower tiers of Portuguese football, whilst Santa Clara competes as a regular Primeira Liga side based in the Azores. The 0% pricing suggests traders may be interpreting the market condition as requiring a specific outcome—likely a home win for Viseu—that historical form makes improbable. Santa Clara's consistent top-flight status and Viseu's lower-division background create a structural asymmetry that shapes how conditional token holders value this contract on Polygon.
Traders monitoring this market should track pre-match team news, injury bulletins, and any fixture rescheduling announcements from the Portuguese Football Federation in the days before 15 August. Polymarket's USDC settlement mechanism depends on reliable outcome reporting; any ambiguity around final score or match cancellation could delay resolution. Recent fixture congestion in Portuguese football has occasionally forced schedule adjustments, so confirmation of the Saturday slot's stability matters for position management near the settlement window close.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $87K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Académico de Viseu FC vs. CD Santa Clara on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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