Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying the listed Copa Sudamericana match did not resolve in a way that matches the contract’s settlement criteria on Polygon with USDC-backed conditional tokens. For a trader, that matters more than the scoreline in isolation: the on-chain result is final only if the event, timing, and settlement wording all line up exactly with the oracle decision and the market’s end window.

The best comparable frame is the live match context itself. CONMEBOL’s fixture page shows Independiente Medellín and Vasco da Gama at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot with the full-time score recorded as **1-1** and the aggregate also **1-1**[1]. Pre-match models and previews had treated it as a tight contest rather than a one-sided spot, with Sports Mole assigning Medellín 46.31%, a draw 27.89%, and Vasco 25.81%[8]. That kind of distribution is consistent with why this market can move sharply on late administrative details: a draw, venue, or leg designation can matter as much as the result itself.

The main catalysts for any late price change are official match confirmation, kick-off timing, and whether the contract’s wording tracks the competition stage correctly. Contemporary coverage from ESPN Deportes and Infobae both described the game as a Sudamericana play-off tie and reported a 2-2 live or final score update, which is exactly the sort of discrepancy a Polymarket user should watch for when settlement depends on the official source rather than commentary feeds[2][3]. If CONMEBOL’s official fixture record, the referee/venue listing, and any market description do not match, the outcome can stay pinned even when the underlying football result appears settled[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Independiente Medellín vs. CR Vasco da Gama across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.