Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hammarby IF O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Hammarby IF (-1.5) | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Hammarby IF (-2.5) | 5% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Brommapojkarna and Hammarby IF meet in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 26 July at 08:00 ET. The market for additional betting options on this fixture currently trades at 1% on Polygon, priced in USDC conditional tokens. This implies traders assess the likelihood of supplementary markets materialising for the match at roughly 1-in-100 odds, a compressed probability that reflects either high confidence in the core market structure or minimal expected demand for granular sub-markets once the primary fixture settles.
Polymarket's conditional token architecture typically expands offerings for high-liquidity matchups or fixtures with significant betting interest. Historical precedent from Allsvenskan coverage shows that additional markets—such as exact scorelines, player performance thresholds, or card accumulation—tend to launch only when underlying volume justifies the infrastructure cost. The 1% pricing suggests traders perceive this fixture as unlikely to generate sufficient secondary-market appetite, or that Polymarket's operators have already signalled limited appetite for expansion beyond standard match outcomes.
Catalysts affecting this market's trajectory include fixture confirmation closer to the settlement window and any late announcements regarding injury status or team news that might elevate broader betting interest. The Allsvenskan fixture calendar typically stabilises two weeks prior to matchday; any postponement or rescheduling would alter the conditional token's settlement conditions. Traders should monitor Brommapojkarna and Hammarby's official channels and Swedish football media for squad updates that might shift perceived match significance and, by extension, the likelihood of expanded market offerings.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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