IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The Allsvenskan fixture between IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius at Borås Arena concluded yesterday as a 0–0 draw, meaning any contract betting on additional markets like goals or cards for this specific match has already settled as a loss. On Polymarket, this outcome is reflected immediately: the “YES” side for this contract sits at a 0% implied probability, priced in USDC on the Polygon network, because the underlying event has finished with no goals scored. Conditional tokens for this market are now effectively worthless, as the settlement window closed at 14:30 UTC with the final score confirmed.

Historically, Elfsborg vs Sirius matches in Allsvenskan have been tight, with recent pre-match odds often favouring Elfsborg (around 1.62–1.65) despite Sirius occasionally being priced as the slight favourite in specific bookmaker lines (1.91). However, low-scoring outcomes are common in this pairing; the 0–0 result aligns with the model’s caution that the match was open but defensively disciplined, and the 1–1 first-score scenario (9.74% probability) did not materialise. This pattern of defensive stalemates frames why the market now reads as a certainty of “NO” for any goal-related or card-related sub-markets.

Traders should watch for post-match official confirmations from the Swedish Football Association regarding any disciplinary actions, though with zero goals and a clean sheet, card-based markets are equally settled as “NO”. No further announcements or schedule dependencies remain, as the match is complete and the settlement window has closed. The only catalyst now is the final on-chain settlement of conditional tokens, which will distribute USDC to “NO” holders and zero to “YES” holders, locking in the 0% probability as the final truth.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.