Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg (-1.5) | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Elfsborg and Västerås SK meet in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 14 August at 13:00 local time. The market for additional match-related contracts has priced at 100% on Polymarket, indicating traders expect supplementary betting options—such as exact scorelines, player performance metrics, or half-time outcomes—to settle affirmatively. The conditional token architecture on Polygon means these secondary markets would branch from the primary match result, with USDC collateral held across the chain until resolution. Currently, the market reflects near-certainty that Polymarket will list further granular markets tied to this fixture.
Historical precedent suggests Allsvenskan fixtures of mid-table significance typically generate two to four additional markets beyond the standard win/draw/loss outcome. Elfsborg finished sixth in 2024 with 52 points; Västerås SK placed ninth with 39 points. Neither club commands the betting volume of Malmö or AIK, yet both maintain sufficient supporter bases to justify derivative markets. Past August fixtures in the league have consistently triggered secondary contract creation within 48 hours of primary market launch, establishing a reliable pattern for traders monitoring Swedish football liquidity.
The settlement window closes on 14 August at 17:00 UTC, giving market operators a narrow window to confirm which supplementary contracts will resolve. Fixture postponements remain the primary risk; Allsvenskan has experienced weather-related delays in August previously. Polymarket's conditional token system requires the underlying match to complete for secondary markets to activate, making fixture status the critical catalyst traders should monitor through official Swedish Football Association channels and club communications in the days preceding kick-off.
Methodology
We track IF Elfsborg vs. Vasteraas SK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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