Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hammarby IF (-1.5) | 100% |
| Hammarby IF (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| BK Hacken (-1.5) | 0% |
| BK Hacken (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this **More Markets** contract at **100% YES**, which means the market is treating the extra-market bundle around Hammarby IF v BK Häcken as effectively locked in on-chain in **USDC** on **Polygon** through the relevant **conditional tokens** framework. In practical terms, the price is saying traders see the contract’s settlement conditions as already satisfied, rather than debating the football outcome itself.
That reading fits the recent head-to-head context. These sides met twice earlier in 2026, with BK Häcken beating Hammarby 3-2 in May and the teams also facing each other in Allsvenskan play at the start of the season, while broader H2H records across recent seasons have been fairly mixed rather than one-sided.[3][6][17] For a Polymarket user, a 100% price usually reflects either a market that has fully converged on a completed condition or a contract whose referenced fixture and market-making dependencies are no longer contested, so the useful check is whether the “more markets” slate was actually created and resolvable off the official match feed, not whether either club was favoured pre-match.[2][3]
The main catalysts to watch are the official competition feed, any late schedule or venue changes, and whether the market’s settlement source has published the relevant match data before the window closes at 12:00 UTC. Flashscore and Sofascore both list the fixture for 9 August at 12:00 UTC at 3Arena in Stockholm, which helps confirm the underlying event timing, but traders still need the on-chain condition to match the off-chain result feed used for resolution.[1][2][15]
Methodology
We track Hammarby IF vs. BK Hacken - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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