Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Team to Advance | 59% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score | 55% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| AC Sparta Praha 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| AC Sparta Praha 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| AC Sparta Praha 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5) | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| AC Sparta Praha 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| AC Sparta Praha (-1.5) | 6% |
| AC Sparta Praha (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this **More Markets** contract at **40% YES** today, which on-chain means traders are pricing a sub-fifty chance that one of the listed conditionals around Olympique Lyonnais v AC Sparta Praha resolves in the affirmative, with settlement handled in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens rather than via the football result itself. The market closes on the evening of the second leg, so liquidity can still reprice quickly if the exchange list, disciplinary edge cases, or team-news dependencies move the likely outcome before kick-off.
For context, the current number sits below the sort of baseline you might expect for a home European qualifier, but the tie framing matters more than the abstract fixture. Lyon have a strong historical edge in this matchup, with six meetings producing five Lyon wins and one draw, while Sparta have not beaten them in the recorded head-to-head. The first leg also gives traders a live reference point: Sparta won 2-1 in Prague, which makes the return less about a clean home favourite narrative and more about whether Lyon’s response lands inside the specific “more markets” universe.
The main catalysts to watch are the official matchday squad, any late injury or rotation news, and confirmation of the exact market template Polymarket is using for settlement, since small wording differences can change what resolves. UEFA’s published fixture lists the return at **19:00 UTC** at Groupama Stadium, while recent reporting noted Lyon were coming into the tie short of competitive league minutes and Sparta were already in season, factors that can still affect pricing if either side announces a surprise line-up.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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