Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qairat FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías (-2.5) | 0% |
| Qairat FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AS Omónoia Leukosías 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the more-markets contract on AS Omónoia Leukosías v Qairat FK at **0% YES**, even though the underlying UEFA Champions League tie is scheduled for 22 July and both teams are already in the match window. On Polymarket, that means traders are currently assigning no value to the contract resolving in the YES state, with positions settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens rather than through any direct view on the football itself.
That 0% reading is easier to interpret when set against the broader pre-match market context. Comparable previews have treated Omonia–Kairat as tight rather than one-sided: one market model split win chances evenly at 33% each across home, draw and away outcomes, while another tipster leaned towards both teams scoring, which implies a live, uncertain contest rather than a clean favourite. A separate data feed even projected an Omonia 2–0 win, underlining that the public read has been fragmented rather than settled.
For traders, the key catalysts are the final line-ups, any late team-news on injuries or suspensions, and confirmation of the competition timetable around kickoff. The fixture is listed as a Champions League game on 22 July, with the settlement window extending to 17:00 UTC, so any delay, rescheduling, or clarification about which exact “more markets” sub-event is referenced can matter for resolution. Because the contract is on-chain, the practical question is not just who wins, but whether the market’s defined condition is triggered cleanly within that settlement window.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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