Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beşiktaş JK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 85% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Beşiktaş JK (-1.5) | 57% |
| O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 52% |
| Beşiktaş JK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Beşiktaş JK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Beşiktaş JK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 41% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score | 39% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Beşiktaş JK O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Beşiktaş JK will face FC Hradec Králové in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round match on 13 August at 1:00 PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices at 57% YES, reflecting modest confidence in the proposition tied to this fixture. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on match day, giving traders a narrow window between kick-off and final resolution.
Turkish Super Lig clubs have historically dominated lower-seeded European opponents in qualifying rounds, though Beşiktaş's recent domestic form has been inconsistent. Hradec Králové, competing in the Czech First League, represents a significant step up in competition; Czech sides have won only three Europa League qualifying ties against Turkish opponents since 2015. The 57% probability sits between a clear favourite and genuine uncertainty, suggesting the market perceives meaningful risk despite Beşiktaş's nominal advantage in squad depth and European experience.
Traders should monitor team news releases through 12 August for injury confirmations, particularly regarding Beşiktaş's attacking options. Qualification format details—whether this is a single match or two-legged tie—remain critical; UEFA typically confirms fixture structures weeks in advance, so any late schedule changes would signal unexpected complications. Pre-match odds from major sportsbooks often diverge from Polymarket pricing by 5–10 percentage points in qualifying rounds, offering arbitrage signals for USDC holders on Polygon. Settlement depends on official UEFA records, which are published within hours of final whistle.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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