UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Diego Ferreira at **61% YES**, with the contract settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the key question is whether the UFC officially names Ferreira the winner before the 8 August bout is finalised and reported. Because the market can still resolve to **50-50** if the fight is cancelled, postponed beyond 22 August, or ruled a no contest, traders are not only buying the fighter they think wins but also the event-risk around whether the bout actually produces a scored result.

The current price sits between the two men’s more recent form and the broader market consensus. Ferreira enters with a 19-7 record and a style that has historically produced both submissions and decisions, while Quarantillo’s profile leans more heavily towards volume and finishes on the feet. Comparative stats point to a live matchup: Quarantillo lands more significant strikes per minute, but Ferreira brings the stronger submission threat and similar takedown defence, which helps explain why the contract is not priced closer to a coin flip. Recent betting coverage has also shown Ferreira as a modest favourite, with prices around -175 to -185 and Quarantillo in the +145 to +154 range, broadly consistent with a low-to-mid 60s implied win chance.[13][16][19][20]

For a hands-on Polymarket user, the main catalysts are official UFC bout status and the post-fight result bulletin rather than pre-fight chatter. If the main card order changes, if either fighter misses weight, or if late medical issues force a scratch, the conditional-token outcome can shift quickly towards the no-contest/void path. The most relevant near-term dependency is the UFC’s own event administration: weigh-ins, bout announcements, and the final commission-issued result will determine whether YES or the alternative side is redeemed on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.