UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this fight at **0% YES** right now, so the contract is effectively still saying Duško Todorovic is being given no live probability against Robert Valentin. On Polymarket, that price reflects the market for a USDC-settled conditional token on Polygon, with the winner decided by official UFC result rather than scorecards or media consensus.

The historical read-through is mixed but leans towards a finish-driven matchup. UFC stats list Todorovic at **13-6** with higher output, landing **4.73 significant strikes per minute** and averaging **1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes**, while Valentin is **12-6-0 with 1 NC**, lands just **1.30 significant strikes per minute**, but attempts more submissions at **1.8 per 15 minutes** and has a longer reach at **77 inches** to Todorovic’s **74**.[2] That contrast matters for pricing: Todorovic’s path is often pressure and volume, while Valentin’s historical win profile is heavily submission-led.[1][2] Both men also arrive off recent first-round wins, which makes the matchup less about broad record quality and more about which style wins the early exchanges.[11]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the official UFC weigh-in, any late medical or bout-order changes, and the result itself, because settlement depends on the UFC’s declared outcome and the market can still go to **50-50** if the bout is cancelled, postponed beyond the deadline, or ruled no contest.[1] The key dependency is simple: if the fight stays on the card and finishes normally, the contract resolves on the official winner; if it does not, the fallback settlement clause controls.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.