Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 74% |
| Map 2 Winner | 71% |
| Map 1 Winner | 64% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 53% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 46% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 35% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 34% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 34% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 30% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 30% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 29% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 27% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 24% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: 100 thieves vs fut esports (bo3) - vct champions group a stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and FUT Esports in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This m…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Cha… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →