Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 63% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 54% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 2 Winner | 48% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 28% |
Market context
Market consensus: 63% chance of valorant: global esports vs full sense (bo3) - vct pacific group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Global Esports and FULL SENSE in the VCT Pacific Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 23 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT P… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →