Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 98% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 25% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 25% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 25% |
| Match Winner | 13% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: gentle mates vs team vitality (bo3) - vct emea group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and Team Vitality in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 29 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT … on PolyGram
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