Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open wta: harriet dart vs peyton stearns. This market refers to the tennis match between Harriet Dart and Peyton Stearns in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harriet Dart' i…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade US Open WTA: Harriet Dart vs Peyton Stearns on PolyGram
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